Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China‘s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen（1）

Ukuphula ibhodlela okunzima ukulisusa endleleni yaseShayina yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni nge-hydrogen ehlanzekile

Amazwe anjengeShayina abhekene nenkinga endleleni yawo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni: ukunciphisa ukungcola ezimbonini ezisindayo kanye nezokuthutha ezithwala kanzima.Zimbalwa izifundo ezijulile zendima engaba khona ye-hydrogen ehlanzekile kule mikhakha ye-'hard-to-abate' (HTA).Lapha senza ukuhlaziya okudidiyelwe okuguquguqukayo kwezindleko eziphansi.Imiphumela ibonisa ukuthi, okokuqala, i-hydrogen ehlanzekile ingaba kokubili umthwali omkhulu wamandla kanye ne-feedstock enganciphisa kakhulu ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni embonini enzima.Ingase futhi ifake amafutha afika ku-50% wamaloli athwala kanzima namabhasi ase-China ngo-2060 kanye nezabelo ezibalulekile zokuthutha.Okwesibili, isimo esingokoqobo se-hydrogen esihlanzekile esifinyelela ku-65.7 Mt wokukhiqiza ngo-2060 singagwema u-US $ 1.72 trillion wokutshalwa kwezimali okusha uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo se-no-hydrogen.Lolu cwaningo luhlinzeka ngobufakazi benani le-hydrogen ehlanzekile emikhakheni ye-HTA yase-China kanye namazwe abhekene nezinselelo ezifanayo ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwegesi ukuze kuzuzwe izinhloso ze-net-zero.

Ukuthola ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuwumsebenzi ophuthumayo womhlaba wonke, kodwa ayikho indlela 'yokulingana-yonke' ukuze amazwe amakhulu akhiphayo ahlangabezane nale nhloso1,2 .Izizwe eziningi ezithuthukile, njenge-United States kanye naseYurophu, ziphishekela amasu e-decar bonisation agxile ikakhulukazi ezinqoleni ezinkulu ze-light-duty vehi cle (LDV), ukukhiqiza amandla kagesi, ukukhiqiza kanye nezakhiwo zezohwebo nezindawo zokuhlala, imikhakha emine ehlangene inqwaba yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni yabo3,4.Abakhiqizi abakhulu bamazwe asathuthuka, njengeShayina, ngokuphambene, banamazwe ahlukene kakhulu kanye nezinhlaka zamandla, ezidinga okubalulekile okuhlukile kwe-decarbonization hhayi ngokwemibandela yemboni kuphela kodwa nasekusatshalalweni kwamasu kobuchwepheshe obusafufusa be-zero-carbon.

Umehluko obalulekile wephrofayili yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni yaseShayina uma kuqhathaniswa naleyo yeminotho yaseNtshonalanga yizabelo ezinkulu kakhulu zokukhishwa kwezimboni ezisindayo kanye nezingxenye ezincane kakhulu zama-LDV kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla ezakhiweni (Fig. 1).I-China ikleliswe kuqala emhlabeni, kuze kube manje, mayelana nokukhiqizwa kukasimende, insimbi nensimbi, amakhemikhali nezinto zokwakha, edla inqwaba yamalahle ekushiseni kwezimboni nokukhiqizwa kwe-coke.Imboni enzima inikela ngama-31% ezinto ezikhishwa yizwe laseShayina manje, okuyisabelo esingaphezulu ngo-8% kunesilinganiso somhlaba (23%), ngo-17% esikhulu kunase-United States (14%) kanye no-13% ngaphezu kwese-European Union. (18%) (ref.5).

I-China ithembise ukuthi izokhipha ikhabhoni enkulu ngaphambi kuka-2030 futhi izuze ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngaphambi kuka-2060. Lezi zithembiso zesimo sezulu zithole ukunconywa okubanzi kodwa futhi zaphakamisa imibuzo mayelana ne-fea sibility6 , ngokwengxenye ngenxa yendima enkulu 'ye-hard-to-abate' (HTA) izinqubo emnothweni waseChina.Lezi zinqubo ngokuphawulekayo zihlanganisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla embonini esindayo kanye nezokuthutha ezisindayo okuzoba nzima ukufaka ugesi (futhi ngaleyo ndlela zishintshele ngqo emandleni avuselelekayo) kanye nezinqubo zezimboni manje ezincike emafutheni ezinto ezimbiwa phansi ezimpahla zamakhemikhali.Kube khona izifundo ezimbalwa zakamuva1– 3 iphenya izindlela ze-decar bonition ezibheke ekungathathini hlangothi kwekhabhoni yohlelo lulonke lwesistimu yamandla e-China kodwa ngokuhlaziywa okulinganiselwe kwemikhakha ye-HTA.Emazweni omhlaba, izixazululo ezingaba khona zokunciphisa imikhakha ye-HTA seziqalile ukudonsa amehlo eminyakeni yakamuva7-14.Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kwemikhakha ye-HTA kuyinselele ngoba kunzima ukufaka ugesi ngokugcwele kanye/noma kubiza ngempumelelo7,8.U-Åhman ugcizelele ukuthi ukuncika endleleni kuyinkinga eyinhloko yemikhakha ye-HTA nokuthi umbono kanye nokuhlelwa kwesikhathi eside kobuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe kuyadingeka ukuze 'kuvulwe' imikhakha ye-HTA, ikakhulukazi izimboni ezisindayo, kusukela ekuncikeni kwezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi9.Ucwaningo luhlole izinto ezintsha kanye nezixazululo zokunciphisa eziphathelene nokubanjwa kwekhabhoni, ukusetshenziswa kanye/noma ukugcinwa (CCUS) kanye nobuchwepheshe bokukhishwa kwegesi engemihle (NETs)10,11.kocwaningo okungenani olulodwa luyavuma ukuthi kufanele futhi kubhekwe ekuhleleni isikhathi eside11.EMbikweni Wokuhlola Wesithupha osanda kukhishwa Wephaneli Yohulumeni Kazwelonke Emayelana Nokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu, ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen 'ekhipha umoya omncane' kwaqashelwa njengenye yezixazululo eziyinhloko zokunciphisa imikhakha eminingi ekufezeni ikusasa le-net-zero ekhishwayo12.

Izincwadi ezikhona ze-hydrogen ehlanzekile zigxile kakhulu ekukhetheni ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza ngokuhlaziywa kwezindleko ze-supply-side15.(I-hydrogen 'ehlanzekile' kuleli phepha ihlanganisa kokubili i-hydrogen 'eluhlaza' kanye 'noluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka', eyangaphambili ekhiqizwe i-electrolysis yamanzi kusetshenziswa amandla avuselelekayo, lena yokugcina itholakala kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kodwa ikhishwe nge-CCUS.) Ingxoxo ngesidingo se-hydrogen igxile kakhulu umkhakha wezokuthutha emazweni athuthukile—izimoto ze-hydrogen fuel cell ikakhulukazi16,17.Izingcindezi zokuqedwa kwe-carbon ezimbonini ezinzima zimile uma ziqhathaniswa nalezo zezokuthutha emgwaqeni, okubonisa imibono evamile yokuthi izimboni ezinzima
kuhlala kunzima ukunqamuka kuze kube yilapho kuvela izindlela ezintsha zobuchwepheshe.Ucwaningo lwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile (ikakhulukazi eluhlaza) lubonise ukuvuthwa kwayo kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko ezinciphayo17, kodwa ucwaningo olwengeziwe luyadingeka olugxile kubukhulu bezimakethe ezingase zibe khona kanye nezidingo zobuchwepheshe zezimboni ukuze zisebenzise ukukhula okulindelwe kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile16.Ukuqonda amandla e-hydrogen ehlanzekile okuqhubekisela phambili ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke kuzoba nokuchema uma ukuhlaziya kukhawulelwe ikakhulukazi ezindlekweni zokukhiqizwa kwayo, ukusetshenziswa kwayo yimikhakha ethandwayo kuphela kanye nokusetshenziswa kwayo kwezomnotho ezithuthukile.Izincwadi ezikhona ze-hydrogen ehlanzekile zigxile kakhulu. ikakhulukazi okukhethwa kukho kobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza ngokuhlaziywa kwezindleko ze-supply-side15.(I-hydrogen 'ehlanzekile' kuleli phepha ihlanganisa kokubili i-hydrogen 'eluhlaza' kanye 'noluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka', eyangaphambili ekhiqizwe i-electrolysis yamanzi kusetshenziswa amandla avuselelekayo, lena yokugcina itholakala kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kodwa ikhishwe nge-CCUS.) Ingxoxo ngesidingo se-hydrogen igxile kakhulu umkhakha wezokuthutha emazweni athuthukile—izimoto ze-hydrogen fuel cell ikakhulukazi16,17.Izingcindezi zokuqedwa kwe-carbon ezimbonini ezisindayo zimile kahle uma ziqhathaniswa nalezo zezokuthutha emgwaqeni, okubonisa imibono evamile yokuthi izimboni ezinzima zizohlala kunzima ukudamba kuze kube yilapho kuvela izindlela ezintsha zobuchwepheshe.Ucwaningo lwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile (ikakhulukazi eluhlaza) lubonise ukuvuthwa kwayo kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko ezinciphayo17, kodwa ucwaningo olwengeziwe luyadingeka olugxile kubukhulu bezimakethe ezingase zibe khona kanye nezidingo zobuchwepheshe zezimboni ukuze zisebenzise ukukhula okulindelwe kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile16.Ukuqonda amandla e-hydrogen ehlanzekile okuqhubekisela phambili ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke kuzoba nokuchema ngokwemvelo uma ukuhlaziya kukhawulelwe ezindlekweni zokukhiqizwa kwayo, ukusetshenziswa kwayo imikhakha ethandwayo kuphela kanye nokusetshenziswa kwayo kwezomnotho ezithuthukile.

Ukuhlola amathuba e-hydrogen ehlanzekile kuncike ekuhlaziyeni izimfuno zayo ezingase zibe khona njengenye indawo kaphethiloli kanye ne-feedstock yamakhemikhali kulo lonke uhlelo lwamandla nomnotho, okuhlanganisa nokucatshangelwa kwezimo ezihlukene zezwe.Alukho ucwaningo olubanzi kangaka kuze kube manje ngendima ye-hydrogen ehlanzekile ekusaseni elingenaziro laseChina.Ukugcwalisa leli gebe locwaningo kuzosiza ukudweba umgwaqo ocacile wokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 yaseChina, kuvumele ukuhlolwa kokungenzeka kwezithembiso zayo zowezi-2030 nezi-2060 zokuqeda ikhabhoni kanye nokuhlinzeka ngesiqondiso kweminye iminotho ekhulayo ekhulayo enemikhakha emikhulu yezimboni ezisindayo.

Umfanekiso 1 |Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kwamazwe abalulekile kanye nendlela yokuhlaziya ye-hydrogen ohlelweni lwamandla.a, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yaseChina ngo-2019 uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States, Europe, Japan kanye ne-India, ngophethiloli.Ngo-2019, ukushiswa kwamalahle kwathatha ingxenye enkulu kakhulu yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni eChina (79.62%) naseNdiya (70.52%), futhi ukushiswa kukawoyela kube nomthelela omkhulu ekukhishweni kwekhabhoni e-United States (41.98%) nase-Europe (41.27%).b, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yaseChina ngo-2019 uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States, Europe, Japan kanye ne-India, ngomkhakha.Ukukhishwa kuboniswa kwesokunxele kanye nengxenye kwesokudla ku-a no-b.Ingxenye yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni evela embonini yaseChina (28.10%) naseNdiya (24.75%) yayiphezulu kakhulu kunaleyo yase-United States (9.26%) kanye ne-Europe (13.91%) ngo-2019. imikhakha ye-HTA.I-SMR, ukuguqulwa kwe-steam methane;I-PEM electrolysis, i-polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis;Inqubo ye-PEC, inqubo ye-photoelectrochemical.

Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuphendula imibuzo emithathu ebalulekile.Okokuqala, yiziphi izinselelo eziyinhloko zokususa ikhabhoni emikhakheni ye-HTA emazweni asathuthuka njengeShayina, njengoba ehlukanisiwe nalawo amazwe athuthukile?Ingabe ubuchwepheshe bamanje bokunciphisa emikhakheni ye-HTA (ikakhulukazi imboni esindayo) busebenza ngokwanele ukufeza ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni yaseChina ngo-2060?Okwesibili, yiziphi izindima ezizoba khona ze-hydrogen ehlanzekile njengokubili okuthwala amandla kanye ne-feedstock emikhakheni ye-HTA, ikakhulukazi e-China nakwamanye amazwe asathuthuka asanda kuqala ukufinyelela ekukhiqizeni nasekusetshenzisweni kwayo okulindelwe?Okokugcina, kusekelwe ekwenzeni kahle kwawo wonke ama-sys wamandla e-China

tem, ingabe ukusetshenziswa okwandile kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile emikhakheni ye-HTA kungabiza ngempumelelo uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izinketho?

Lapha sakha imodeli yesistimu yamandla edidiyelwe ehlanganisa kokubili ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo kuyo yonke imikhakha ukuze kuhlaziywe ukusebenza kahle kwezindleko okungenzeka kanye nezindima ze-hydrogen ehlanzekile kuwo wonke umnotho waseShayina, kugcizelelwa emikhakheni ye-HTA engacwaningiwe kahle (Fig. 1c).

Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-03-2023