Imiphumela yohlaziyo ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthembela ekuthuthukisweni kokusebenza kahle kwamandla kuhlanganiswe ne-CCUS kanye ne-NETs kuphela akunakwenzeka ukuthi kube indlela engabizi kakhulu yokususa ikhabhoni ejulile yemikhakha ye-HTA yaseChina, ikakhulukazi izimboni ezisindayo.Ngokucacile, ukusetshenziswa okusabalele kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile emikhakheni ye-HTA kungasiza i-China ifinyelele izindleko zokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngempumelelo uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo ngaphandle kokukhiqizwa nokusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile.Imiphumela inikeza isiqondiso esiqinile sendlela yase-China yokukhipha ikhabhoni ye-HTA kanye nesithenjwa esibalulekile samanye amazwe abhekene nezinselele ezifanayo.
I-Decarbonizing imikhakha yezimboni ye-HTA nge-hydrogen ehlanzekile
Senza ukuthuthukiswa okudidiyelwe okungabizi kakhulu kwezindlela zokunciphisa ukungathathi hlangothi kwe-carbon e-China ngo-2060. Izimo ezine zokumodela zichazwe kuThebula 1: ibhizinisi njengenjwayelo (BAU), Iminikelo Yase-China Enqunyiwe Kazwelonke ngaphansi kweSivumelwano sase-Paris (NDC), i-net- ukukhishwa okungenayo i-hydrogen (ZERO-NH) kanye ne-net-zero ephumayo ene-hydrogen ehlanzekile (ZERO-H).Imikhakha ye-HTA kulolu cwaningo ihlanganisa ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni zikasimende, insimbi nensimbi kanye namakhemikhali abalulekile (okuhlanganisa i-ammonia, i-soda ne-caustic soda) nezokuthutha ezisindayo, okuhlanganisa nokuthuthwa kwamaloli nokuthutha ngemikhumbi yasekhaya.Imininingwane egcwele inikeziwe esigabeni Sezindlela kanye Namanothi Okwengeza 1–5.Mayelana nomkhakha wensimbi nensimbi, ingxenye ehamba phambili yokukhiqizwa okukhona eShayina (89.6%) iwuhlelo oluyisisekelo lwesithando somlilo esiqhunyiswa komoyampilo, okuyinselelo enkulu yokususa ikhabhoni ejulile yalokhu.
imboni.Inqubo yesithando somlilo se-arc kagesi ihlanganisa kuphela u-10.4% womkhiqizo ophelele e-China ngo-2019, ongaphansi ngo-17.5% kunesabelo esimaphakathi somhlaba kanye no-59.3% esingaphansi kwalokho sase-United States18.Sihlaziye ubuchwepheshe obungu-60 obubalulekile bokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwensimbi kumodeli futhi sazihlukanisa ngezigaba eziyisithupha (Fig. 2a): ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle kwezinto, ukusebenza kobuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe, ukufakwa kukagesi, i-CCUS, i-hydrogen eluhlaza ne-hydrogen eluhlaza (Ithebula Lokwengeza 1).Ukuqhathanisa ukulungiselelwa kwezindleko zesistimu ye-ZERO-H ne-NDC kanye nezimo ze-ZERO-NH zibonisa ukuthi ukufakwa kwezinketho ze-hydrogen ehlanzekile kuzoveza ukuncishiswa kwekhabhoni okuphawulekayo ngenxa yokwethulwa kwezinqubo zokunciphisa i-hydrogen-ngqo yensimbi (i-hydrogen-DRI).Qaphela ukuthi i-hydrogen ngeke isebenze nje njengomthombo wamandla ekwenzeni insimbi kodwa futhi njenge-ejenti yokunciphisa i-carbon-abating ngokungeziwe kunqubo ye-Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) kanye no-100% emzileni we-hydrogen-DRI.Ngaphansi kwe-ZERO-H, isabelo se-BF-BOF sizokwehliswa sibe ngu-34% ngo-2060, nge-45% yesithando somlilo se-arc kagesi kanye no-21% we-hydrogen-DRI, futhi i-hydrogen ehlanzekile izohlinzeka ngo-29% wesamba esiphelele sesidingo samandla emkhakheni.Ngentengo yegridi yamandla elanga nomoya okulindeleke ukubayehla yaya ku-US$38–40MWh−1 ngo-205019, izindleko ze-hydrogen eluhlaza
nayo izokwehla, futhi umzila we-hydrogen-DRI ongu-100% ungase udlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu kunaleyo ebiqashelwe ngaphambilini.Mayelana nokukhiqizwa kukasimende, imodeli ihlanganisa ubuchwepheshe bokunciphisa obuyinhloko obungu-47 kuzo zonke izinqubo zokukhiqiza ezihlukaniswe ngezigaba eziyisithupha (Amathebula Ezengezo 2 no-3): ukonga ugesi, ezinye izinto zokubasa, ukunciphisa isilinganiso se-clinker-to-simende, i-CCUS, i-hydrogen eluhlaza kanye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka ( Umfanekiso 2b).Imiphumela ibonisa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bokusebenzisa amandla okuthuthukisiwe bunganciphisa kuphela u-8-10% wengqikithi ye-CO2 ekhishwayo emkhakheni kasimende, futhi ukuhlanganiswa kokushisa kokungcola kanye nobuchwepheshe be-oxy-fuel buzoba nomthelela wokunciphisa (4-8%).Ubuchwepheshe bokunciphisa isilinganiso se-clinker-to-simende bungaveza ukuncishiswa kwekhabhoni ephezulu kakhulu (50-70%), ikakhulukazi okuhlanganisa izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhishwa ikhabhoni zokukhiqiza iklinka kusetshenziswa i-granulated blast furnace slag, nakuba abagxeki bebuza ukuthi usimende ozoba umphumela uzogcina izimfanelo zawo ezibalulekile.Kodwa imiphumela yamanje ikhomba ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen kanye ne-CCUS kungasiza umkhakha kasimende ukuzuza ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okucishe kungabi ziro ngo-2060.
Esimeni se-ZERO-H, ubuchwepheshe obusekelwe ku-hydrogen obungama-20 (kubuchwepheshe bokunciphisa obungama-47) buzosebenza ekukhiqizeni usimende.Sithola ukuthi izindleko ezijwayelekile zokuncishiswa kwekhabhoni zobuchwepheshe be-hydrogen ziphansi kune-CCUS ejwayelekile kanye nezindlela zokushintsha uphethiloli (Fig. 2b).Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-hydrogen eluhlaza kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ishibhile kune-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka ngemva kuka-2030 njengoba kuxoxwe ngakho ngokuningiliziwe ngezansi, cishe ngama-US$0.7–US$1.6 kg−1 H2 (ref. 20), okuletha ukuncipha okukhulu kwe-CO2 ekuhlinzekweni kokushisa kwezimboni ekwenzeni usimende. .Imiphumela yamanje ibonisa ukuthi inganciphisa u-89-95% we-CO2 kusukela kunqubo yokushisisa embonini yaseShayina (Fig. 2b, technologies
28–47), okuhambisana nesilinganiso soMkhandlu we-Hydrogen sama-84–92% (ref. 21).Ukukhishwa kwenqubo ye-Clinker ye-CO2 kufanele kuncishiswe yi-CCUS kukho kokubili i-ZERO-H ne-ZERO-NH.Siphinde silingise ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen njengesiphakeli lapho kukhiqizwa i-ammonia, i-methane, i-methanol namanye amakhemikhali asohlwini lwencazelo yemodeli.Esimweni se-ZERO-H, ukukhiqizwa kwe-ammonia okusekelwe kugesi ngokushisa kwe-hydrogen kuzothola ingxenye engu-20% yokukhiqiza okuphelele ku-2060 (Umfanekiso 3 kanye neThebula le-Supplementary 4).Imodeli ihlanganisa izinhlobo ezine zobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza i-methanol: amalahle ku-methanol (CTM), igesi ye-coke ku-methanol (CGTM), igesi yemvelo ku-methanol (NTM) kanye ne-CGTM/NTM enokushisa kwe-hydrogen.Esimeni se-ZERO-H, i-CGTM/NTM enokushisa kwe-hydrogen ingakwazi ukufeza isabelo sokukhiqiza esingu-21% ngo-2060 (Fig. 3).Amakhemikhali nawo angathwala amandla e-hydrogen.Ngesisekelo sokuhlaziya kwethu okuhlanganisiwe, i-hydrogen ingahlanganisa i-17% yokugcina amandla okusetshenziswa ekuhlinzekeni ukushisa embonini yamakhemikhali ngo-2060. Kanye ne-bioenergy (18%) kanye nogesi (32%), i-hydrogen inendima enkulu okufanele iyidlale. 
decarbonization of China HTA chemical industry (Fig. 4a).
Umfanekiso 2 |Amandla okunciphisa ikhabhoni kanye nezindleko zokuncishiswa kobuchwepheshe bokunciphisa obubalulekile.a, Izigaba eziyisithupha zobuchwepheshe bokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-steelmaking okubalulekile okungu-60.b, Izigaba eziyisithupha zamathekhnoloji angukhiye angu-47 okunciphisa ukungcoliswa kukasimende.Ubuchwepheshe bufakwe ohlwini ngezinombolo, nezincazelo ezihambisanayo ezifakwe kuThebula Lokwengeza 1 ku-a kanye neThebula Lokwengeza 2 lika-b.Amazinga okulungela ubuchwepheshe (TRLs) obuchwepheshe ngabunye aphawulwe: TRL3, umqondo;I-TRL4, i-prototype encane;I-TRL5, i-prototype enkulu;I-TRL6, i-prototype egcwele esikalini;I-TRL7,umboniso wangaphambi kokuhweba;I-TRL8, ukuboniswa;I-TRL10, ukutholwa kusenesikhathi;I-TRL11, ivuthiwe.
Izindlela zokuthutha ze-HTA zokususa ikhabhoni nge-hydrogen ehlanzekile Ngokwesisekelo semiphumela yokumodela, i-hydrogen nayo inamandla amakhulu okuqeda ikhabhoni umkhakha wezokuthutha waseChina, nakuba kuzothatha isikhathi.Ngaphezu kwama-LDV, ezinye izindlela zokuthutha ezihlaziywe kulo modeli zihlanganisa amabhasi emikhumbi, amaloli (alula/amancane/amaphakathi/asindayo), ukuthutha kwasekhaya kanye nezitimela, ezihlanganisa izinto eziningi zokuhamba e-China.Kuma-LDV, izimoto zikagesi zibukeka zizohlala zinezindleko ngokuzayo.Ku-ZERO-H, ukungena kwe-hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) emakethe ye-LDV kuzofinyelela kuphela ku-5% ngo-2060 (Fig. 3).Kumabhasi emikhumbi, nokho, amabhasi e-HFC azoncintisana kakhulu kunezinye izindlela zikagesi ngo-2045 futhi ahlanganise u-61% wesamba semikhumbi ngo-2060 esimweni se-ZERO-H, nogesi osele (Fig. 3).Ngokuqondene namaloli, imiphumela iyahlukahluka ngokwezinga lomthwalo.I-propulsion kagesi izoshayela ngaphezu kwengxenye yesamba semikhumbi yamaloli asebenza ukukhanya ngo-2035 e-ZERO-NH.Kodwa ku-ZERO-H, amaloli asebenza kancane e-HFC azobe encintisana kakhulu kunamaloli asebenza ngogesi kagesi ngo-2035 futhi ahlanganisa u-53% wemakethe ngo-2060. Mayelana namaloli athwala kanzima, amaloli e-HFC azofinyelela ku-66% imakethe ngo-2060 esimweni se-ZERO-H.Udizili/i-bio-diesel/CNG (igesi yemvelo ecindezelwe) ama-HDV (izimoto ezisindayo) azoyeka imakethe ngemuva kuka-2050 kuzo zombili izimo ze-ZERO-NH kanye ne-ZERO-H (Fig. 3).Izimoto ze-HFC zinenzuzo eyengeziwe kunezimoto zikagesi ekusebenzeni kwazo okungcono ezimweni ezibandayo, okubalulekile enyakatho nasentshonalanga yeChina.Ngale kwezokuthutha zomgwaqo, imodeli ibonisa ukwamukelwa okusabalele kobuchwepheshe be-hydrogen ekuthumeleni ngemikhumbi esimweni se-ZERO-H.Ukuthunyelwa kwemikhumbi kwasekhaya kwelaseShayina kudinga amandla kakhulu futhi kuyinselelo enzima kakhulu yokukhipha ikhabhoni.Hlanza i-hydrogen, ikakhulukazi njenge-a
I-feedstock ye-ammonia, inikeza inketho yokuthunyelwa kwe-decarbonization.Isixazululo esingabizi kakhulu esimweni se-ZERO-H siphumela ku-65% ukungena kwe-ammonia-fuelled kanye ne-12% yemikhumbi egcwele i-hydrogen ku-2060 (Fig. 3).Kulesi simo, i-hydrogen izobalelwa isilinganiso esingu-56% sokusetshenziswa kokugcina kwamandla kuwo wonke umkhakha wezokuthutha ngo-2060. Siphinde safanisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen ekushiseni okuhlala (i-Supplementary Note 6), kodwa ukwamukelwa kwayo akunakwa futhi leli phepha ligxile ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen ezimbonini ze-HTA nezokuthutha ezisindayo.Ukonga izindleko zokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kusetshenziswa i-hydrogen ehlanzekile Ikusasa le-carbon-neutral laseShayina lizobonakala ngokubusa kwamandla avuselelekayo, ngokuphela kwamalahle ekusetshenzisweni kwawo kwamandla okuyinhloko (Fig. 4).Amafutha angewona awe-fossil ahlanganisa u-88% wengxube yamandla eyinhloko ngo-2050 kanye nama-93% ngo-2060 ngaphansi kwe-ZERO-H.Wind futhi i-solar izohlinzeka ngohhafu wokusetshenziswa kwamandla okuyinhloko ngo-2060. Ngokwesilinganiso, kuzwelonke, isabelo se-hydrogen ehlanzekile samandla okugcina ephelele. ukusetshenziswa (TFEC) kungafinyelela ku-13% ngo-2060. Ngokucabangela ukuhlukahluka kwesifunda kwamakhono okukhiqiza ezimbonini ezibalulekile ngesifunda (Ithebula Lokwengeza 7), kunezifundazwe eziyishumi ezinezabelo ze-hydrogen ze-TFEC ezingaphezu kwesilinganiso sikazwelonke, kuhlanganise ne-Inner Mongolia, i-Fujian, i-Shandong. kanye ne-Guangdong, eqhutshwa izinsiza zomoya ezicebile zelanga nezisogwini nezisogwini kanye/noma izimfuno eziningi zezimboni ze-hydrogen.Esimeni se-ZERO-NH, izindleko zokutshala izimali eziqoqiwe ukuze kuzuzwe ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuze kufike ngo-2060 kuzoba ngu-$20.63 wezigidigidi, noma u-1.58% wesamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya (GDP) ngo-2020–2060.Isilinganiso sokutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe ngonyaka singaba cishe ku-$516 billion ngonyaka.Lo mphumela uhambisana nohlelo lwaseShayina lokunciphisa amathriliyoni ayi-15 kuze kufike ku-2050, okuyisilinganiso sokutshalwa kwezimali okusha kwaminyaka yonke kwezigidigidi ezingama-US$500 (ref. 22).Kodwa-ke, ukwethula okukhethwa kukho kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile ohlelweni lwamandla e-China kanye nokudla kwemboni yezimboni esimweni se-ZERO-H kuphumela ekutshalweni kwezimali okunqwabelana okuphansi kakhulu kwama-US$18.91 trillion ngo-2060 kanye nonyaka.ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzokwehliswa kube ngaphansi kwe-1% ye-GDP ngo-2060 (Fig.4).Mayelana nemikhakha ye-HTA, izindleko zonyaka zokutshala kulezoimikhakha ingaba cishe ku-US$392 billion ngonyaka ku-ZERO-NHisimo, esihambisana nokuqagela KwezamandlaI-Transition Commission (US$400 billion) (ref. 23).Nokho, uma kuhlanzekile
I-hydrogen ifakwe ohlelweni lwamandla kanye nezimpahla zamakhemikhali, isimo se-ZERO-H sibonisa ukuthi izindleko zonyaka zokutshala izimali emikhakheni ye-HTA zingancishiswa zibe yi-US$359 billion, ikakhulukazi ngokunciphisa ukuthembela kuma-CCUS noma ama-NET abizayo.Imiphumela yethu iphakamisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-hydrogen ehlanzekile kungonga ama-US$1.72 trillion ezindlekweni zokutshalwa kwezimali futhi kugweme ukulahlekelwa okungu-0.13% ku-GDP ehlanganisiwe (2020–2060) uma kuqhathaniswa nomzila ongenawo i-hydrogen kuze kufike ku-2060.
Umfanekiso wesi-3 |Ukungena kobuchwepheshe emikhakheni ejwayelekile ye-HTA.Imiphumela engaphansi kwe-BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH kanye ne-ZERO-H scenarios (2020–2060).Onyakeni ngamunye oyingqopha-mlando, ukungena kobuchwepheshe obuthile emikhakheni ehlukene kuboniswa ngamabha anombala, lapho ibha ngayinye ingamaphesenti okungena afika ku-100% (okwelathisi elinomthunzi ngokugcwele).Ubuchwepheshe buphinde buhlukaniswe ngezinhlobo ezahlukene (ezikhonjiswe ezinganekwaneni).CNG, igesi yemvelo ecindezelwe;I-LPG, i-liquid petroleum gas;LNG, igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi;w/wo, noma ngaphandle;I-EAF, isithando somlilo se-arc kagesi;I-NSP, inqubo eyomile ye-preheater entsha yokumiswa;I-WHR, ukubuyiswa kokushisa kwemfucuza.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-13-2023
